May
22
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Fundamentals may still appear weak, but gas and oil prices are going up regardless – and that’s looking more like a long-term proposition.
Overall, oil has rebounded from under $35 a barrel at the beginning of the year to about $60 per barrel
My guess is the that the recent spike in energy prices has as much to do with leaving the bad news behind us and looking ahead. While 2008 was a lousy year for the oil industry, 2009 looks to be about the same — or worse – the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries estimates that 2009 will produce the weakest demand for oil since 1981.
There is a burgeoning feeling that the worst might well be behind us, in terms of lagging oil prices, similar to the mindset that afflicts Wall Street. Since last September, each 50-point-plus upward move in the stock market has triggered an accompanying $7 billion uptick in the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil. Of course, in the short term, any drag in the stock market may well mean a drag for oil prices. Says Adam Sieminski, chief energy economist, Deutsche Bank, Washington, DC, “Oil analysts should stay focused on the potential for lower equity markets given the very strong positive correlation recently between oil prices and the Standard & Poor’s 500лаптоп.
That’s the short term and I’m here this week to talk about the long-term trends in the oil industryдивани – trends that I believe are favorable to the industry, unless adversaries in the federal government use their leverage to gum up the works. I’ll get to that a little bit later, but most industry analysts fully expect the price of oil to keep increasing.
First, PMV Oil Associates predicts that oil will approach $63 dollars per barrel in the coming weeks and will rally to $78 within the next six months. I think that $78 could be a charitable estimate, especially if the six-month winning streak on Wall Street comes to an end.
Going into 2009, there was a great deal of anxiety among oil industry insiders over how serious an Obama administration – plus a Democrat-controlled Congress – was in demonizing oil and gas on the mantle of climate change. Only four or five months ago, predictions were dire: price caps on oil, onerous taxes on industry companies, and a carbon cap-and-trade bill that would change the way that businesses and individuals pay for their energy costs.
Virtually, those threats to the energy industry have not come to pass – and likely won’t anytime soon. Right now, economic realities seem to be trumping any move to energy policies that would harm the oil industry. The political reality is that powerful politicians in states that have close ties to the oil sector (for example, Michigan, Ohio and Alabama for the auto industry and Texas, Louisiana and Oklahoma for the oil drilling sector) aren’t buying into the climate change argument – at least not enough to penalize oil companies or auto makers who are committed to providing jobs and giving consumers (i.e. “voters”) the products and services they want. For proof, look at the in-house squabble among the White House’s auto industry task force over how to steer car makers into laws and regulations that would theoretically reduce greenhouse gases and heighten fuel efficiency capabilities.
Washington insiders say that the U.S. Treasury Dept. and National Economic Council swatted down attempts from the Environmental Policy Administration to tighten regulations on carbon emissions and penalize industries that sold oil and gas-dependent products like airplanes or cars. That would alienate average Americans and threaten the status quo in Washington. Not a viable option for the realists in the halls of Congress.
Right now, there seems to be no political appetite for curbing oil production, or for instituting policies that penalize industries that use or make oil and gasoline for their products. The economy continues to be in the tank and the realities of an energy economy that reduces oil in favor of wind or solar solutions, which have increasingly been exposed as inadequate or just plain unable to handle any energy vacuum left by a reduction in oil use, aren’t exactly optimistic for oil industry critics.
Investors know this, and oil-producing countries know this, too. That’s one big reason why oil prices should continue to climb incrementally, even though the fundamentals for the industry right now (i.e. weak demand and under capitalization) aren’t so vibrant.
We’re not out of the woods yet, but the landscape is clearing. With no major offensive from Washington coming down the pike against the industry, we remain on the path to a stronger, healthier oil industry.
